• German living standards plummeted after Russia invaded Ukraine, say economists
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/18/german-living-standards-plummeted-after-russia-invaded-ukraine-say-econ

    18.3.2024 by Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor - Energy price shocks had huge knock-on effect, with real wages falling further in 2022 than in any year since 1950, says report

    The energy shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to the biggest collapse in German living standards since the second world war and a downturn in economic output comparable to the 2008 financial crisis, a stark assessment has found.

    In a joint paper designed to underline the depth of the economic crisis in Europe’s erstwhile powerhouse, two former economic advisers to the German government have said that real wages in the country slumped further in 2022 than in any year since 1950.

    A failure to protect German industry from the energy price spike may turn the 2020s into “a lost decade for Germany” and further fuel the rise of the populist far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the authors warned in a working paper published by the Forum for a New Economy.

    Isabella Weber, associate professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts, said: “In an age of conflict, climate and geopolitical crisis the rise of the AfD is a wake-up call. The collapse in living standards experienced by Germans is unprecedented since world war two. While it is true that the factors that fuelled the rise of the AfD go beyond economics, it is also impossible to ignore how this unprecedented slump in German living went hand-in-hand with the rising popularity of the far right.”

    Weber served on a high-level expert commission that was charged by the German government with designing an energy price brake for firms and households in 2022. Her co-author, Prof Tom Krebs, was a senior adviser at the finance ministry under Olaf Scholz, now the German chancellor.

    Their findings underline the extent to which Europe’s largest economy is still reeling from the February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The International Monetary Fund forecast for German growth in 2024 and 2025 is that it will be lower than any comparable advanced economy save Argentina.

    The economy shrank by 0.3% in the final three months of 2023 and is expected to contract again in the first quarter of 2024. Two consecutive quarters of falling output are defined as a technical recession.

    Weber and Krebs highlighted that two distinct surges in support for the AfD in the summers of 2022 and 2023 coincide with periods of uncertainty in the German government about how to address the impact of energy price shocks on living standards.

    They calculated that real wages measured against pre-crisis forecasts fell by 4% from April 2022 to March 2023, while output fell by 4.1%. Once the damage to output caused by the Covid crisis is included, actual output at the end of 2023 was about 7% below the pre-crisis trend. Real wages were 10% below their pre-crisis trend in 2023.

    The economists argued that the energy price brake, introduced by Scholz’s coalition government later in 2022, was the right policy response, but that the delay in implementing it, at a time when the market price for gas was skyrocketing, led to a strong increase in AfD approval in the summer after the Russian invasion.

    #Allemagne économie #salaires #guerre

  • Unicef official tells of ‘utter annihilation’ after travelling length of Gaza | Israel-Gaza war | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/22/unicef-official-utter-annihilation-gaza

    An aid official who travelled the length of Gaza this week has described scenes of “utter annihilation”, with “nothing left” of what were once thriving and crowded cities in the territory.

    “The depth of the horror surpasses our ability to describe it,” said James Elder, a spokesperson with the United Nations Children’s Fund (Unicef).

    “As soon as you drive through the north, you get that universal gesture of hunger of people putting their hands to their mouths. A lot of children, women with very gaunt faces. In [the city of] Khan Younis, there is utter annihilation.

    “I’ve not seen that level of devastation in 20 years with the UN. People’s coping capacity in the north has been smashed and in the south it is hanging by a thread,” Elder said in an interview on Friday.

    Elder said that he saw a dozen “skeletal” children at Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahia in the north of Gaza.

    #genocide_joe #états-unis #génocidaires

  • Israel broke international law with tank shelling that killed journalist, UN finds | Israel | The Guardian
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/13/israel-broke-international-law-journalist-killed

    An Israeli tank that killed a Reuters journalist and wounded six others in Lebanon last year fired two 120mm rounds at a group of “clearly identifiable journalists” in violation of international law, a UN investigation has found.

    The investigation by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil), summarized in a report seen by Reuters, said its personnel did not record any exchange of fire across the border between Israel and Lebanon for more than 40 minutes before the tank opened fire, killing Issam Abdallah, a 37-year-old video journalist.

  • European Commission accused of ‘bankrolling dictators’ by MEPs after Tunisia deal

    Members of justice committee say €150m in EU funding went straight to country’s president, Kais Saied

    The European Commission has been accused of “bankrolling dictators” by senior MEPs who have claimed that the €150m it gave to Tunisia last year in a migration and development deal has ended up directly in the president’s hands.

    A group of MEPs on the human rights, justice and foreign affairs committees at the European parliament launched a scathing attack on the executive in Brussels, expressing anxiety over reports that the commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, was about to seal a similar deal with Egypt.

    The Greek migration minister, Dimitris Kairidis, confirmed late on Wednesday that a joint declaration between the EU and Egypt had been agreed and would be formally unveiled when von der Leyen and the leaders of Greece, Italy and Belgium visit Cairo on Sunday.

    The agreement sees Egypt receiving an aid package of €7.4bn (£6.3bn) “mostly in loans” in return for the country “committing to work harder on migration”, he told the Guardian, adding: “I have said, time and again to my colleagues, that we need to support Egypt which has been so helpful in managing migration and so important for the stability of North Africa and the wider Middle East.”

    Kairidis, who held talks with the Egyptian ambassador to Greece on Wednesday, confirmed there had been no boats leaving directly from Egypt, even if arrivals on southern Greek islands of migrants travelling through Libya had soared this year. “Egypt is not only hosting 9 million refugees, it has been very effective in controlling illegal migration,” he said.

    The MEPs have accused the commission of refusing to answer questions on the deal with Tunisia and worry that it is looking at a series of “ad hoc” deals with other African countries without regard to democracy and rule of law in those countries.

    “It seems that we are bankrolling dictators across the region. And that is not the Europe that we want to see. That is not the place which the EU should be holding in the world,” said the French MEP Mounir Satouri, a member of the parliamentary foreign affairs committee.

    At a press conference in Strasbourg, he claimed the money – pledged to Tunisia last year as part of a wider pact aimed at curbing a surge in migration to Italy and people-smuggling – had been diverted, saying that the €150m was supposed to have been invested directly in an EU-agreed project but instead had been “transferred to the president directly”.

    Fellow MEPs said there had been an “authoritarian shift” in Tunisia under its president, Kais Saied, but the commissioners had gone ahead with the deal anyway.

    A spokesperson for the EU commission said MEPs were entitled to express their views but that it was better to build partnerships to improve democracy and human rights than to “break off relations” and see the situation deteriorate.

    “What I can say is that we are absolutely convinced of the necessity to work with countries in our neighbourhood, taking into account the realities on the ground,” the spokesperson said. “We know the criticism related to human rights in those countries, and it is obvious that this is an issue and that these are issues that we take up with those countries.”

    The spokesperson added there were “specific mechanisms in place to discuss human rights with the countries in the region, including Egypt”.

    The Danish MEP Karen Melchior, coordinator of the justice committee, said parliamentarians’ concerns about the Tunisia deal were “being continually ignored” and that commissioners refused to answer their questions or take their concerns seriously.

    “How can we continue to have a memorandum of understanding, how can we give budget support without conditionality to Tunisia, when things are going from bad to worse?” she said.

    “To sign an agreement with President Saied, who is continuing to suppress opposition and democracy in Tunisia – this is not the way the EU should be acting. This is not the way that Team Europe should be doing our foreign policy.”

    The chair of the human rights committee, Udo Bullman, attacked what he said was a “hush-hush” deal that had been rushed through.

    “The commission has to explain why there was so much urgency in the agreement of last summer – why it, hush-hush, very quickly before Christmas, [said] it was of the ‘highest urgency’ and just gave the money … without any critical debate,” he said, adding this was a question for the EU’s commissioner for neighbourhood and enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi, and for von der Leyen.

    Michael Gahler, the German CDU MEP who was blocked from visiting Tunisia by the local authorities last year, said the Tunisian people should not be abandoned in the face of “Saied’s autocratic rule” and economic decline.

    “That requires us to make sure that European taxpayers’ money truly benefits the Tunisian people and the civil society … and why it has to be clear that European funding to Tunisia needs to be adequately conditioned to that end,” he said.

    The concerns are being voiced this week as the EU parliament’s five-year mandate draws to a close before elections in June, with MEPs keen to lay down red lines for any future deals the executive in Brussels intends to do.

    Sara Prestianni, the advocacy director for the NGO EuroMed Rights, said she was concerned the EU was about to make a similar “strategic and political” mistake with Cairo, pledging vast sums of money without setting conditions involving enough financial oversight or guarantees on human rights. “It would be an error, particularly if it [the Tunisia deal] is replicated with Egypt,” she said.

    Satouri, who is also the parliament’s special rapporteur for Egypt, said: “We need to ensure democratic procedures are followed before money is disbursed. These are not the private fund of Commissioner Várhelyi. These are European funds.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/13/european-commission-accused-of-bankrolling-dictators-by-meps-after-tuni
    #Tunisie #externalisation #migrations #réfugiés #financement #Kais_Saied #accord

    –—

    ajouté à la métaliste sur le #Memorandum_of_Understanding (#MoU) avec la #Tunisie :
    https://seenthis.net/messages/1020591

  • Von der Leyen’s EU group plans Rwanda-style asylum schemes

    Centre-right European People’s party says it wants to create deportation deals with non-EU countries to head off rise of far right.

    The European Commission chief, #Ursula_von_der_Leyen, has given her support to controversial migration reforms that would involve deporting people to third countries for asylum processing and the imposition of a quota system for those receiving protection in EU countries.

    Manfred Weber, the leader of the European People’s party (EPP), said the policies – similar to the UK’s Rwanda scheme – had been worked out with all the parties in the EPP political group, which includes von der Leyen’s Christian Democrat Union in Germany.

    Warning that “the far right wants to destroy Europe from the inside”, Weber said the EPP would be “crystal clear” about its desire to reduce immigration in the campaign for the European elections in June.

    Asked if von der Leyen – who is expected to be nominated as the EPP’s candidate for European Commission president at its annual congress in Romania – backed these policies, Weber said: “All the programmatic positions of the European People’s party are [supported] also by Ursula von der Leyen … We do this as a team together.

    He added: “What European people expect from us – and here the European People’s party will be, in the campaign, crystal clear – you have to lower the numbers of arrivals. And we have to separate the visitors who are refugees and asylum seekers who should get the protection they need.”

    The policy is seen as an initiative to head off the rise of far-right and extremist parties such as the AfD in Germany. It envisages the EU doing a series of deals with non-EU states with a view to deporting people who have arrived via irregular migration routes for asylum processing in those “safe” third countries.

    The draft law advocating the fundamental change in European asylum regime will be considered at the EPP’s annual congress in Bucharest on Wednesday as part of the party’s manifesto discussions.

    The hardening of migration policy is likely to inflame tensions within the parliament and create external political risks for von der Leyen, who must represent the interests of the entire EU and not one political bloc in parliament, where the EPP is the largest grouping.

    She is expected to be formally selected as the EPP’s official candidate for the European Commission presidency in a vote in Romania on Thursday, meaning that it will back her for a second term in office.

    One Brussels insider said “the socialists will go mad with this” – a reference to the Socialists and Democrats, the second-biggest voting bloc in the European parliament.

    Sophie in ’t Veld, a Dutch MEP and the lead representative for the liberal Renew group on the parliament’s committee for civil liberties, justice and home affairs, called the measure “yet another unsavoury EPP chunk of red meat, meant to attract the far-right vote”.

    She added: “It will not work. All the EPP strategy has achieved over the past years is making the far right bigger. So if they know it doesn’t work, why do they stubbornly repeat the same tactics each time?”

    The EPP represents centre-right parties across Europe, including government parties in Greece, Poland, Ireland, Latvia, Croatia, Lithuania, Sweden, Romania, Finland and Luxembourg.

    Its manifesto says: “We want to implement the concept of safe third countries. Anyone applying for asylum in the EU could also be transferred to a safe third country and undergo the asylum process there.” However, in what could be seen as an effort to set itself apart from the UK’s controversial Rwanda policy, the manifesto stresses that the “criteria for safe countries shall be in line with the core obligations of the Geneva refugee convention and the European convention on human rights”.

    It says that neither of the conventions “include the right to freely choose the country of protection”.

    Developing the theme further, it says that after the “implementation of the third country concept”, it proposes the EU then “admit a quota of people in need of protection through annual humanitarian quotas of vulnerable individuals”.

    The publication of the manifesto and the launch of the EPP campaign could be start of a tricky period for von der Leyen. “I don’t think she will have any difficulty among member states, but the parliamentary vote is another game altogether,” said one diplomat.

    While very little legislation is left to negotiate, the bumps on the road to June act as a reminder of how von der Leyen came to power in 2019 – as a last-minute compromise candidate who was voted in with a wafer-thin majority.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/06/eu-group-european-peoples-party-von-der-leyen-migration-reforms

    #UE #externalisation #Union_européenne #EU #procédure_d'asile #externalisation_de_la_procédure #modèle_australien #Rwanda #Rwanda-style

    –—

    ajouté à la #métaliste sur les tentatives de différentes pays européens d’#externalisation non seulement des contrôles frontaliers (►https://seenthis.net/messages/731749), mais aussi de la #procédure_d'asile dans des #pays_tiers :
    https://seenthis.net/messages/900122

  • 200 parliamentarians from Israel’s top military allies call for immediate arms embargo
    1 March 2024 10:33 GMT | Middle East Eye
    https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/200-parliamentarians-israels-top-military-allies-call-immediate-arms

    Two hundred parliamentarians from Israel’s top military allies, including Australia, France, the UK and the US, have signed a letter calling on their states to end their arms sales to Israel.

    “We will not be complicit in Israel’s grave violation of international law,” the letter reads. “The ICJ ordered Israel not to kill, harm or ’deliberately [inflict] on the [Palestinians| conditions of life calculated to bring about... physical destruction’. They have refused.”

    The signatories include US representatives Rashida Tlaib and Cori Bush, UK former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, and leader of the Australian Green Party Adam Brandt, among others.

    Progressive International
    @ProgIntl
    https://twitter.com/ProgIntl/status/1763505031482102022

    BREAKING 🇵🇸 200 parliamentarians across Israel’s top military partners unite to end their countries’ arms sales to Israel. “We will not be complicit in Israel’s grave violation of international law.”

    • Politicians from 12 countries unite to press for arms ban on Israel
      Letter aims to bring public anger over 30,000 deaths of Palestinians in Gaza into heart of parliaments
      Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor | Fri 1 Mar 2024
      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/01/politicians-from-12-countries-unite-to-press-for-arms-ban-on-israel

      More than 200 MPs from 12 countries have committed themselves to trying to persuade their governments to impose a ban on arms sales to Israel, arguing they will not be complicit in “Israel’s grave violation of international law” in its assault on Gaza.

      The letter, organised by Progressive International, is seen as the best practical measure possible to bring public anger over the 30,000 deaths of Palestinians in Gaza into the heart of parliaments, where calls for an immediate unconditional ceasefire have so far fallen on deaf ears or been rejected by national governments.

      The organisers believe governments supplying arms are vulnerable to legal challenges given the scale of devastation in Gaza that they say extends beyond any definition of self-defence or proportionality.

      The signatories are all MPs in parliaments where the governments allow arms sales to Israel. Nine are current or former leaders of political parties, including the former UK Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn; the leader of the Green party in the Australian senate, Larissa Waters; the coordinator of La France Insoumise, Manuel Bompard; the president of the Workers’ party of Belgium, Peter Mertens; the Canadian MP and member of the PI Council, Niki Ashton; the Brazilian congressman Nilto Tatto; the former leader of Die Linke, Bernd Riexinger; the leader of Podemos, Ione Belarra; the leader of the Dutch Socialist party, Jimmy Dijk; the Irish teachta dála (member of parliament), Thomas Pringle; and the former co-chair of the Peoples’ Democratic party, Sezai Temelli. The sole signatory from the US is the Michigan congresswoman, Rashida Tlaib.

      The action by the parliamentarians is supported by the founder of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the Spanish government minister Pablo Bustinduy and the prominent Indian politician Jignesh Mevani. (...)

    • 1 mars 2024
      « Nous ne serons pas complices de la violation du droit international par Israël »
      https://blogs.mediapart.fr/internationale-progressiste/blog/010324/nous-ne-serons-pas-complices-de-la-violation-du-droit-international-

      Plus de 200 législateurs de 13 pays s’unissent pour s’opposer aux exportations d’armes provenant de leur pays à destination d’Israël.

      Nous, les parlementaires signataires de cette lettre, déclarons notre engagement à mettre fin aux ventes d’armes de nos nations à l’État d’Israël.

      Nos bombes et nos balles ne doivent pas être utilisées pour tuer, mutiler et déposséder les Palestiniens. Mais c’est le cas : nous savons que des armes mortelles et leurs pièces détachées, fabriquées ou expédiées par nos pays, contribuent actuellement à l’assaut israélien contre la Palestine, qui a fait plus de 30 000 morts à Gaza et en Cisjordanie.

      Nous ne pouvons pas attendre. À la suite de l’arrêt provisoire rendu par la Cour internationale de justice (CIJ) dans l’affaire de la Convention sur le génocide contre l’État d’Israël, l’embargo sur les armes n’est plus une nécessité morale, mais une obligation légale.

      Nous ne nous rendrons pas complices des graves violations du droit international commises par Israël. La CIJ a ordonné à Israël de ne pas tuer, blesser ou « [infliger] délibérément aux [Palestiniens] des conditions d’existence visant… leur destruction physique ». Israël a refusé. Au lieu de cela, ils poursuivent l’assaut prévu sur Rafah qui, selon le secrétaire général des Nations unies, « augmentera de façon exponentielle ce qui est déjà un cauchemar humanitaire ».

      Aujourd’hui, nous prenons position. Nous allons prendre des mesures immédiates et coordonnées dans nos assemblées législatives respectives pour empêcher nos pays d’armer Israël.
      (...)